PIY RTM - an approach

terms and acronyms used:

PIY - print it your self.
amRTM - real time media consumption during w2w time
w2w - the time between waking up and commencing work.
Slatesheets - pulp/plastic hybrid paper which can be written on and erased. requires special color dyes.
Niche broadcasting - specific programming which is tailored to the interests of highly interested individuals. Usually implies a small consumer base.
Wizard - Interactive program which helps a user configure their computer.
Push - IT technique for automatic updating of information on a computer.
Target advertising - Pinpointing only the potential customers for a product.

This is a brief concept study of the near future prospects for PIY media. As we rapidly enter the epoch of family affordable color printing, it is high time to examine the possibilities and opportunities lying before us.

In this study we are going to limit ourselves to PIY as a viable contender in the area of amRTM , a category which includes - personality radio, news/entertainment TV mixes and morning newspapers. There are many other areas where PIY will find a foothold - not least in education and public communication.

It would be reasonable to assume that in the metropolitan areas of a country like Sweden we have reached sufficient stability in w2w media consumption to make certain hypothesis, even though the relatively short history of morning-TV and commercial radio leaves room for adjustments. We must try to determine what, if any, dynamic factors might occur and give PIY a reasonable launching pad.

Dynamic Factors:

   am Newspapers

Assuming that the pre-distribution production costs of Newspapers is not much different from that of on-line publications, the first question to ask is if Newspaper distributions costs are going to change. Here there is of course one major step in rationalization yet to be undertaken and that is the merging of postal and morning paper deliveries. Since this does not currently seem to be on anyone's current agenda I would predict rather stable distribution costs at current newsprint circulation levels.

Of course circulation levels are directly independent on cost to the customer. I predict that within three years time we will see a considerable loss in classified advertising for printed papers as these are moved over to the Internet. That will definitely make it difficult for newsprint to maintain attractive pricing.

   amRTM radio

Unfortunately the unrealistic frequency slot price structures in Sweden makes it difficult to predict any thing in this area. Exorbitant frequency slot market prices are resisting necessary devaluation due to optimistic long term company strategies. There are possibilities that political positioning might change this in the future but outside of that we can look for fairly stable cost projections. Digital radio will change this situation but I don't see digital radio becoming a force for at least five years time.

   amRTM TV

Relatively stable cost developments in a relatively stable market.

   amRTM PIY

I have already brought up the dramatic decrease in the cost of desktop color printing. Though it is not foreseeable that paper prices will drop - there are indications that the application of color including the consumables involved might soon reach even lower levels than today. I think it is reasonable to predict a 15 to 20% drop in hardware and dyes with in the next two years.

This emerging industry has more in common with amRTM TV and radio than it does with traditional newsprint and will experience similar operating cost development.

2. Consumer habits

If PIY RTM is going to make a break it will most certainly be at the cost of traditional morning newspapers.

The arguments for PIY are:

1. the cost of traditional newspaper subscriptions will decrease as advertising revenues are diverted to the Internet.

2. News content will be on a par with radio and TV when it comes to timeliness.

3. Selective consumer content filtering will be appealing.

4. Highly focused target advertising will woo agencies.

5. Convenience. Perhaps not compared to getting your paper stuffed in your mailbox but in comparison with IT media in general. Despite the advantages of push technique currently propagating itself on the Internet in a rather turbulent manner, it is undeniable that unless you are sitting at your desk and already working on your computer, it is just not convenient to go through the tedious process of turning your PC on and hooking up to the net just to get some football scores.

   No matter how attractive b and c might seem it is a and d that will cause the greatest impact and in a few years time e will be an important factor.

The arguments against PIY are:

1. Limited technical installations in the home. PIY requires a computer, a printer, and an internet connection. Both the computer and the printer must be state of the art. The printer must be inexpensive, color capable and hopefully support paper sizes larger than A4. The computer must be sleep mode compatible. This installation base probably does not exceed 50,000 homes in Sweden at the present time.

2. Inconvenience of change. Never underestimate the consumers resistance to change.

3. Baring the availability of Slate Sheets which seem to be at least 3 years away we are still confronted with the problem of distributing raw sheets of paper to the home. Even in bulk form this presents considerable costs and some inconvenience which the consumer might not want to assume.

   Of course both a. and b. are time related problems. Would any one doubt that the equipment base will increase dramatically. Does any one doubt the inevitably of slate sheets considering the long term depletion of forests as the developing countries of the world acquire our western news consumption habits. Here we must in fairness examine the advent of thin screen technology which obviously is also on the cards for the near future. Yet even though this innovation is going to find a host of useful applications I argue that in the area of amRTM paper or slatesheets is to be preferred. Who would like to spill marmalade on a 10,000:- flat screen?

A model for PIY amRTM

With the help of a wizard the subscriber customizes her morning package, choosing amongst news categories, features and reports. In a sophisticated environment she will also be able to combine highly individual reports such as her personal financial status, job searches, buying agents, etc.

She can also combine her daily schedules and other reminders.

Then she will set her computer as she would an alarm clock to wake up at a time shortly before she does. As long as she hasn't forgotten to check that her printer is loaded with paper the computer will call the provider and download the specified content.

The pages will be printed out and ready for her to read with her morning coffee. This of course can be done individually for each member of the family including the children who just might conceivably get a page from their school with a briefing of the days lessons and what to expect for lunch.

Even though specified targeted content is a very attractive concept, it is important not to loose sight of our need for browsing. Browsing is an important element of all media consumption and it must be included in PIY as it is in traditional newsprint. The balance between specific and random content is an issue which will only be resolved by trial and error and will of course vary between consumers.

Finally I would like to note the specific advantage of adjustable font sizing, a not entirely marginal advantage considering the amount of oversized-print publications magazines like Readers Digest publish. This might be a helpful argument in convincing older generations of the advantages of PIY.



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